Publicado: 07-29-2011 12:24 PM
GDP DOWN... DEPRESSION AND UNEMPLOYMENT UP, UP!!!
GDP 1.3 .. AND FALLING... ADVANCING OBAMA'S DEPRESSION
Weak growth raises concerns on economy
WASHINGTON | Fri Jul 29, 2011
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy came perilously close to flat-lining in the second quarter and grew at a meager 1.3 percent annual rate in the April-June period as consumer spending barely rose. First quarter, January-March, revised down from 1.9 to 1.4.!!!
Commerce Department data on Friday also showed the current lull in the economy began earlier than had been thought, with the growth losing steam late last year.
That could raise questions on the long held view by both Federal Reserve officials and independent economists that the slowdown in growth as the year started was largely the result of transitory factors.
Growth in gross domestic product -- a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders - rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate. First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from a 1.9 percent increase.
Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter. Fourth-quarter growth was revised to a 2.3 percent rate from 3.1 percent.
"The second quarter disappointed, but the first-quarter downward revision is more disturbing. It advances the pangs of concern. The debt ceiling nonsense is not going to help us. We're already in an economy that is subpar," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida.
"Gasoline price increasing from $3 to $4, that really slapped the consumer back considerably."
U.S. stock index futures added to losses and government debt prices extended gains after the weak GDP data. The dollar fell to a four-month low against the yen, while the Swiss franc hit a record high against the greenback.
Economists had expected the economy would show signs of perking up by now with Japan supply constraints easing and gasoline prices off their high, but data has disappointed.
This and the sharp downward revisions to the prior quarters suggest a more troubling and fundamental slowdown might be underway.
There is also heightened uncertainty over the outlook because of the impasse in talks to raise the nation's borrowing limit and avoid a damaging government debt default.
The Treasury says the government will soon run out of money to pay all its bills.
Economists have warned that a debt default could push the fragile economy over the edge.
Publicado: 07-29-2011 12:25 PM
"Clearly this is evidence of a mid-cycle slowdown. The only question now is do we see a pick up in the second half and so far the economic data to date doesn't suggest that," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York.
Data released on Friday showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe
than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1 percent instead of 4.1 percent.
The annual revisions of GDP data from the Commerce Department showed the
economy contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3 percent between 2007 and
2010. Output over that stretch had previously been estimated to have been flat.
The economy needs to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent or better on a sustained
basis to chip away at the nation's 9.2 percent unemployment rate.
CONSUMER SPENDING BRAKED SHARPLY
The March earthquake in Japan severely disrupted U.S. auto production. The resulting shortage of motor vehicles weighed on retail sales as consumers were unable to find the models they wanted. That combined with high gasoline costs to curb spending.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, decelerated sharply to a 0.1 percent rate -- the weakest since the recession ended two years ago.
Spending grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter.
Motor vehicle production subtracted 0.12 percentage point from gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, after adding 1.08 percentage points to first-quarter GDP growth.
The composition of growth in the April-June quarter was weak and could prompt
economists to dial down their expectations for a quick and solid rebound in the third quarter.
A smaller trade deficit, as imports slowed, was one of the main contributors to the rise in second-quarter growth, with businesses spending and inventory investment also adding to output.
Government spending declined again in the second quarter as state and local authorities continued to pare their budgets, even though defense expenditures
rebounded at 7.3 percent rate after contracting at a 12.6 percent rate in the first three months of the year.
The easing of the auto parts disruptions and a drop in gasoline prices could be a tail wind to third-quarter growth, but economists are concerned that June data was rather weak.
The report also showed a moderation in inflation pressures, with the personal
consumption expenditure price index rising at a 3.1 percent rate after rising 3.9 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose 2.1 percent, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2009, after rising 1.6 percent in the first quarter. It overshot the Federal Reserve's preferred 2.0 percent level.
(Editing by Neil Stempleman)
Publicado: 07-30-2011 02:12 PM
ECONOMY UNDER GEORGE W. BUSH
This page contains a variety of statistics on the economy from January 20th, 2001 to September 2008.
Successive speakers at the Democratic National Convention poured scorn on President Bush's economic record. The clear aim was to justify the party's call for "change," and to undermine support for Republican presidential nominee John McCain. His election would mean a "third Bush term," delegates groaned. Yet Democrats cited no good evidence for their claims that the administration has produced a stagnant economy, widening disparities of income and wealth, high unemployment, and a heavy burden of government debt (supposedly resulting from an unwise military intervention in Iraq).
How does the performance of the U.S. economy really compare with other advanced economies over the eight years of George Bush's presidency? Data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the International Comparison Program (ICP) (a cooperative venture coordinated by the World Bank) and the U.S. Census Bureau allow a nonpartisan, factual assessment. Here are some of the findings:
- Economic growth. U.S. output has expanded faster than in most advanced economies since 2000. The IMF reports that real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 2.2% over the period 2001-2008 (including its forecast for the current year). President Bush will leave to his successor an economy 19% larger than the one he inherited from President Clinton. This U.S. expansion compares with 14% by France, 13% by Japan and just 8% by Italy and Germany over the same period. The latest ICP findings, published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators 2008, also show that GDP per capita in the U.S. reached $41,813 (in purchasing power parity dollars) in 2005. This was a third higher than the United Kingdom's, 37% above Germany's and 38% more than Japan's.
Publicado: 07-30-2011 02:13 PM
- Household consumption. The ICP study found that the average per-capita consumption of the U.S. population (citizens and illegal immigrants combined) was second only to Luxembourg's, out of 146 countries covered in 2005. The U.S. average was $32,045. This was well above the levels in the UK ($25,155), Canada ($23,526), France ($23,027) and Germany ($21,742). China stood at $1,751.
- Health services. The U.S. spends easily the highest amount per capita ($6,657 in 2005) on health, more than double that in Britain. But because of private funding (55% of the total) the burden on the U.S. taxpayer (9.1% of GDP) is kept to similar levels as France and Germany. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 84.7% of the U.S. population was covered by health insurance in 2007, an increase of 3.6 million people over 2006. The uninsured can receive treatment in hospitals at the expense of private insurance holders. While life expectancy is influenced by lifestyles and not just access to health services, the World Bank nevertheless reports that average life expectancy in the U.S. rose to 78 years in 2006 (the same as Germany's), from 77 in 2000.
- Income and wealth distribution. The latest World Bank estimates show that the richest 20% of U.S. households had a 45.8% share of total income in 2000, similar to the levels in the U.K. (44.0%) and Israel (44.9%). In 65 other countries the richest quintile had a larger share than in the U.S....
- Employment. The U.S. employment rate, measured by the percentage of people of working age (16-65 years) in jobs, has remained high by international standards. The latest OECD figures show a rate of 71.7% in 2006. This was more than five percentage points above the average for the euro area. The U.S. unemployment rate averaged 4.7% from 2001-2007. This compares with a 5.2% average rate during President Clinton's term of office, and is well below the euro zone average of 8.3% since 2000.
The evidence shows that much of the Democratic Party's criticism of President Bush's economic record is wide of the mark. True, the economic slowdown now affecting most advanced countries will likely result in rising unemployment over the coming months. But thanks to sensible policies pursued by the Bush administration (not always with adequate support from a Democratic-controlled Congress), the U.S. economy is sufficiently flexible to keep unemployment below the 7.7% peak reached in the last postrecession year of 1992.
The main risk is that, if elected, Barack Obama will pursue a "social justice" strategy. This would encompass higher taxes on entrepreneurs, savers and investors, more direct government intervention in the economy, and protectionist policies (including revoking existing trade agreements) aimed at safeguarding the jobs of his union backers in "old" industries and public services. If so, the pain is likely to be more widespread and prolonged.
OBAMA MORE THAN TRIPLED THE ANNUAL DEFICIT AND MORE THAN 40% THE NATIONAL DEBT SINCE HE TOOK POWER!!!
Publicado: 07-31-2011 12:34 PM
Is Obama or Mexico Worse on Unemployment?
By Kevin McCullough
This week the Mexican Consulate to Sacramento California proclaimed, “We have become a middle class country!”
Oh if only President Obama could say the same.
See, for Mexico to bootstrap its way to middle class status, lots of things had to change from only a few years ago. Finance markets had to open up. People needed to access education, and ultimately people needed to be able to work.
And work they are south of the border.
Sporting a brand new unemployment rate of just under 5%, the current Mexican economy is humming, people are buying homes and people are working. In fact, the small business community of Mexico is creating jobs and a need for workers so fast that from only California nearly 300,000 illegals have repatriated themselves to Mexico, just to do those jobs “that Americans never would.”
Another soaring economic factor for Mexico is that the most lucrative jobs are in the construction business. Homes, production facilities, and factories are all working to spur on the next generation of Mexican entrepreneurial success.
Put that side by side with American construction trends since President Obama came to office and the contrast is stunning.
Do you realize that America has the worst economy on our continent?
White House officials will get unbelievably angry when this is pointed out, but 5% unemployment was what this nation enjoyed under President Bush. So what did President Bush know, and what do Mexico and Canada now know that President Obama doesn’t know?
Most likely it’s got something to do with the idea that small businesses are the engine to a growing economy. And while Mexico is building things and growing things, inner city Obama voters are sitting on their tukas (or in the collective “tukai”) groaning about how much the government “ain’t doin’ for me!”
Stimulating failed businesses, insisting on “fixing” health care with entitlement “benefits” that no one likes, and talking up green energy while ignoring the plethora of energy resources we have at the reach of our fingers roughly sums up the Obama term. The plan of action so misguided that even now he’s taken aback that he must yet try to solve the problem of adding on to the nation’s credit card.
Publicado: 07-31-2011 12:35 PM
All the while he obfuscates and instructs his budget director to do the same, so that he may scare social security recipients of the benefits they paid into. (You do know don’t you that the tax intake from July 2011 will be in excess of $200,000,000,000 and it would only take $20,000,000,000 to meet the social security needs?)
I know that in the midst of all the arguments about how the government can’t even consider not sending out it’s 80,000,000 checks this next week its hard to grasp pictures of two nations most Americans normally see as inferior—actually doing better than us—but reality dictates a closer look be had.
Canada was in almost an identical economic free fall in 2009. We “stimulated” our economy by propping up companies making horrible products and falsely thinking we solved the problem. Obama promised 8% unemployment—worst case—if we passed the stimulus. Canada chose not to, and the rate at which their nation has rebounded has outpaced America on all levels.
Meanwhile to our south, Mexico is seeing the greatest economic middle class expansion in it’s history, and their unemployment levels are roughly HALF what ours in America are.
Still think President Obama is improving our image on the international stage?
Mexico has been an infinitely more disorganized, poorly led, poorly secured, and poorly resourced nation for most of its existence in modern times. I mean the words of the Consulate to Sacramento say it all—they’re throwing parties that they’ve become a “middle class nation.”
Meanwhile America is on exactly the opposite trend.
How long does this last? About as long as President Obama is left in office, I’m guessing.
One final thought, America’s solution might just be one of Mexico’s neighbors. Governor Perry in Texas has created half of all the new jobs in the entire nation in the past three years, should he ever decide to take a stab at it, (being President) his proximity to Mexico might just end up being... an asset.
Of course by then President Obama will be sitting in his urban living room collecting his unemployment checks like most of the rest of the people his policies have so miserably failed. The ones he’s failed most being just blocks away from his Chicago address.
OBAMA'S REAL UNEMPLOYMENT 17.9% AND GOING UP, UP, UP!!!!
Just imagine the campaign spots, (Music fade, minor key dramatic)(Big throaty announcer “Who would’ve ever guessed that Mex-i-co would surpass the United States in job creation, just two and half years into his administration? No... He... Can’t! Vote for anyone other than Obama in 2012, and take back your con-ti-nent!” (Music swell.)
Kevin McCullough is the nationally syndicated host of “The Kevin McCullough Show” weekdays (7-9am EST) & “Baldwin/McCullough Radio” Saturdays (9-11pm EST) on 289 stations. His newest best-selling hardcover from Thomas Nelson Publishers, “No He Can’t: How Barack Obama is Dismantling Hope and Change” is in stores now.