* Recession Due by November of 2012 *
* By: Larry Walker, Jr. * March 11/2012
“Are you cut out to live a lie? If you don't mind skulking around, leading a double life and constantly having to look over your shoulder to make sure you don't get found out, you may have just what it takes.” ~ How to Live a Lie (eHow.com)
As I pointed out in War on Wealth, Part II | Keeping Our Foot on the Gas, Barack Obama, the unopposed Democratic presidential nominee, has been out on the campaign trail spreading the following wildly inaccurate cliff-hangers. He says, “Manufacturing is coming back. Companies are starting to bring jobs back. The economy is getting stronger. The recovery is speeding up. We’re moving in the right direction. And now we have to do everything in our power to keep our foot on the gas.”
But according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the same crew who predicted the last recession, U.S. economic growth is at 21-month low, and we are heading straight into another recession, this year, in 2012.
ECRI is a private forecasting firm based in Manhattan which was founded by Geoffrey H. Moore, the economist who helped originate the practice of using leading indicators to predict business cycles. Over the last 15 years, ECRI has gotten all of its ecession calls right, while issuing no false alarms.
In the institute’s view, the United States, which under the leadership of Barack Obama has failed to recover from the last downturn, is currently plummeting into a new one. On September 30, 2011, Lakshman Achuthan, the institute’s chief operations officer, said,” If the United States isn’t already in a recession now it’s about to enter one.”Mr. Achuthan maintains this pposition to this day. Here he is in a February 24, 2012 interview on CNBC:
In fact, if you carefully study the table below, courtesy of the National Bureau of Economic Reserach, what should stand out is the fact that, ever since 1945, the United States has averaged an economic recession once every 59-month’s. Therefore, it is logical to infer that since the last recession began in December of 2007, the next recession should be arriving by November of 2012.
After the way Obama has divided and driven the federal government and our nation into the ground over the last 37 month’s, can you imagine how he would act under the duress of a self-imposed recession? More bailouts, never-ending stimulus, trillions more in crushing debt, bigger deficits, numberless regulations, higher taxes, continued covering of his tracks with a vast array of alibis and excuses, and more lies. Oops! Did I say lies?
It’s been real though, I mean the loss of almost a million manufacturing jobs since 2008; the decline in economic growth from a peak annual rate of 3.0% in 2010, to just 1.7% in 2011; the national debt as a percentage of GDP skyrocketing from 69.9% in 2008 to 104.8% in 2012, and projected to reach 107.8% by 2014; and lest we forget, gasoline prices rising from an average price of $1.61 in the week ending December 29, 2008, to $3.79 as of the week ending March 5, 2012. However, anyone who’s still considering Mr. Obama’s re-election should take the time to study not only ECRI’s economic indices, but also the eHow.com article, “How to Live a Lie” – because if you still believe in Obama there’s no sense in beating around the Bush.
Publicado: 03-11-2012 04:40 PM
Obama Approval Continuing to Decline
By Katie Pavlich 3/12/2012
OBAMA'S REAL REAL UNEMPLOYMENT 19.1% AND GOING UP, UP, UP!!!!
Margaret Thatcher: "El socialismo dura hasta que se les acaba el dinero de otros"
Winston Churchill: "El socialismo es la filosofía del fracaso, el credo de los ignorantes, el evangelio de la envidia y su virtud es el reparto igualitario de la miseria."
Obama’s approval rating on the deficit hit an all-time low, with a slender 32 percent giving him positive marks. Among independents, 70 percent disapprove here, also a new high. Even on foreign policy — a onetime strong point — Obama’s ratings look worse. For the first time in nearly a year, as many Americans disapprove as approve of his handling of the war in Afghanistan. On Iran, a slim majority now disapproves of how he is dealing with the possibility of the country obtaining nuclear weapons.
High gas prices are finally taking their toll, despite old media doing everything they can to downplay the situation:
On energy issues generally, almost half the country gives Obama negative marks. Fifty percent of Americans see the Obama administration as having the power to do something about the cost of a gallon of gasoline.
Considering the President personally lobbied to kill the Keystone Pipeline project and as we watch solar company after solar company propped up by taxpayer loans go bankrupt, I doubt his approval numbers on energy will be going up anytime soon.
OBAMA IS FULFILLING HIS PROMISE TO RISE THE GAS IN U.S. TO THE LEVELS OF EUROPE.
Publicado: 03-12-2012 12:55 PM
Barack Obama’s Energy Policy: Unicorn Farts as the Fuel of Tomorrow
by Erick Erickson
March 19th 2012
On Friday, the President of the United States accused his Republican opponents of being members of the Flat Earth Society because of their demands that the nation increase drilling.
In no small bit of irony, the President who bitterly lamented the rise of ATM’s and internet travel options accused the GOP of wanting to bitterly cling to the past.
But what of Barack Obama’s energy policy? He likes to tout wind and solar technologies and batteries, but it seems while he accuses the GOP of being flat earthers, the reality is that the President is himself anti-science when it comes to the reality of domestic energy needs.
His solution to fueling our cars amounts to using unicorn farts as gas — which has just as much a chance of happening as the mythic battery powered cross country run.
The facts are pretty simple. As a matter of both science and reality, battery technology is neither good enough nor cheap enough to supply American needs relating to transportation. Even were there batteries available for vehicles, the cost of conversion for the tens of millions of cars on the road right now would be cost prohibitive and increasing fuel standards, resulting in smaller and smaller cars, penalize families. Try piling a family of four in a Prius for a trip to grand mom’s house for Spring Break. The luggage and leg room will make for an exciting time.
Even beyond the family car, a battery will not put an 18 wheeler on the road, a 747 in the air, or a locomotive on its rails. Americans depend on crude oil right now and in the future. To cling to the hope of a battery that can meet American automotive needs is anti-science and as realistic as fueling our future with unicorn farts. See Charles Lane at the Washington Post for more on the President’s crusade against science.
This President’s policies have done everything possible to drive up the price of crude oil in hopes that some mythical unicorn fart, solar panel, or battery will come online quickly enough to meet American needs. It is not happening. Going back to May of 2009, the President insisted on discouraging the “overproduction of oil” as potentially damaging to our national security. If only we had a President who understood supply and demand.
Under Barack Obama’s administration, domestic exploration on federal lands and seas is down 40% 14% (new non-partisan numbers are out and have revised the number down from 40% to 14% decrease in production, though the decrease in federal permitting is higher). The gains we have seen have come largely from one new find, Thunder Horse, approved by Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The exploration on land has come on private land Barack Obama could not stop.
For stability, the oil market depends on an excess supply of 1 million to 2 million barrels a day. The Keystone XL Pipeline would have provided an additional 700,000 barrels a day by itself. Barack Obama stopped it.
The reality is the President’s polling is going down because the logical outcomes of his policies are coming to pass. Now the President is left to demagogue the GOP instead of actually doing anything because he really does not want lower gas prices. He wants, instead, to continue using government stimulus funds to explore unicorn farts, solar, etc. as an energy source. After spending over $15 billion, there are only 3,545 jobs to show for it and a lot of bankruptcies and wasted money.
Meanwhile, the oil and natural gas sector of the economy is creating 20% of the good jobs in America. Imagine how much lower unemployment could be if Barack Obama were not so hostile to real energy.
Publicado: 03-19-2012 10:25 PM
Townhall.com ^ | May 24, 2012 | Erika Johnson
I hate that I feel compelled to say it, but the gentleman most definitely has a point. Some words of wisdom from Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.): Coburn: U.S. "should see another downgrade"
"S&P's downgrade on us was right, matter of fact we're going to get another downgrade. I can tell you right now, you can have a great legal case for suing the rating agencies for not downgrading us again because we have not demonstrated the political will to solve the problems," said Coburn on CBS's midweek show "Face to Face," posted online Wednesday. ...
"We should see another downgrade, because we have not done the structural things that will fix our country," he added. ...
When asked if he agreed with Boehner's decision to push forward the tumultuous debt-ceiling debate, Coburn said, "I think that's exactly what our founders had in mind." ...
"Those are all things people don't want to hear, but it's going to happen, because if we don't do it, the people who are loaning us the money are going to make us do it," he said.
Coburn is essentially saying that last summer's downgrade, which took our credit rating from AAA down to AA+ for the first time ever, was pretty much our just desert. We've had the ability to foresee the consequences of our metastisizing federal government's spending binge for ages, and we have failed to summon the political will it's going to take to effect real change in Washington. The United States creditworthiness is still a better bet relative to lots of other countries, but we're going the way of Greece -- and fast.
Publicado: 05-24-2012 08:57 PM
Hotair ^ | 05/25/2012 | Political Math
It's been going around Facebook and the Twitters.
It's been rated “mostly true” by Politifact.
It is the MarketWatch piece on how Obama hasn't really increased spending all that much.
And I'm da..mn tired of picking it apart 140 characters at a time, so I put together this sarcastic infographic showing exactly how sloppy this piece really is.
There are two things in this infographic that should be called out more explicitly.
First, much of the debate here centers around who exactly should catch the blame for FY 2009 spending. This is actually a very tricky question and I think compelling cases can be made for both sides of this debate.
My personal pposition is that it's really complicated. But one thing is for certain: in hindsight the CBO January 2009 estimate is so obviously wrong that using it should be called out and mocked.
The January 2009 CBO estimate might have been a "best estimate of what Obama inherited", but only in January 2009 when spending data was *very* hard to predict. January 2009 marked the worst part of the recession and the uncertainty was very high. Only a few months later, Obama’s budget estimated 2009 spending would be $400 billion higher than the CBO estimate.
But now we can look at the data, not the estimates. And we should. The spending data ended up $20 billion lower than the CBO estimate… and that included the stimulus spending (which Nutting says was $140 billion, but I’m still trying to track that number down). If that is the case, the high-end estimate for Bush’s fiscal year is $3.38 trillion. If we compare that to Obama’s 2013 budget proposal ($3.80 trillion), that’s an increase of 12.5% (3.1% annualized). Which isn’t that high, but it’s also using a baseline that is still filled with a lot of what were supposed to be 1 time expenses (TARP, Cash for Clunkers, the auto bailout, the housing credit, etc).
Second, Nutting uses the CBO baseline in place of Obama’s spending. This is easily verified and I can’t think of a serious economic pundit who would say this is OK. I can think of two reasons for doing this: Either a) Nutting is a monstrously biased pposition who (rightly) figured no one in the liberal world would fact check him so he could use whatever the hell number he wanted to use or b) Nutting had no idea that the CBO baseline isn’t a budget proposal. I’m actually leaning toward the second explanation. Nutting uses so many disparate sources it seems clear he doesn’t know his way around federal finance.
Congrats, Mr. Nutting. I don’t think you’re a huge jerk, only that you’re hilariously unqualified for your job.
Bush requested $3.107 trillion, but the final budget of $3.52 trillion was passed by the Democratic Congress and signed by President Obama on March 12, 2009.
For actual spending, I used the monthly Treasury Reports, which have spending and revenue for every month since 1981 in an Excel file. Easy to work with.
The CBO baseline (which was referenced by Nutting for the $3.58 trillion number) is found here.
And just for kicks, here is the CBO analysis of the President’s Budget which pegs Obama’s 2013 spending at $3.717 trillion.
Publicado: 05-25-2012 09:13 AM
THOMAS SOWELL: BIG LIES IN POLITICS
May 25, 2012 @ 12:03 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage
The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy them, and only in the short run. The current outbreaks of riots in Europe show what happens when the truth catches up with both the politicians and the people in the long run.
Among the biggest lies of the welfare states on both sides of the Atlantic is the notion that the government can supply the people with things they want but cannot afford. Since the government gets its resources from the people, if the people as a whole cannot afford something, neither can the government.
There is, of course, the perennial fallacy that the government can simply raise taxes on “the rich” and use that additional revenue to pay for things that most people cannot afford. What is amazing is the implicit assumption that “the rich” are all such complete fools that they will do nothing to prevent their money from being taxed away. History shows otherwise.
After the Constitution of the United States was amended to permit a federal income tax, in 1916, the number of people reporting taxable incomes of $300,000 a year or more fell from well over a thousand to fewer than three hundred by 1921.
Were the rich all getting poorer? Not at all. They were investing huge sums of money in tax-exempt securities. The amount of money invested in tax-exempt securities was larger than the federal budget, and nearly half as large as the national debt.
This was not unique to the United States or to that era. After the British government raised their income tax on the top income earners in 2010, they discovered that they collected less tax revenue than before. Other countries have had similar experiences. Apparently the rich are not all fools, after all.
Publicado: 05-25-2012 09:46 AM
In today’s globalized world economy, the rich can simply invest their money in countries where tax rates are lower.
So, if you cannot rely on “the rich” to pick up the slack, what can you rely on? Lies.
Nothing is easier for a politician than promising government benefits that cannot be delivered.
Pensions such as Social Security are perfect for this role. The promises that are made are for money to be paid many years from now — and somebody else will be in power then, left with the job of figuring out what to say and do when the money runs out and the riots start.
There are all sorts of ways of postponing the day of reckoning. The government can refuse to pay what it costs to get things done. Cutting what doctors are paid for treating Medicare patients is one obvious example.
That of course leads some doctors to refuse to take on new Medicare patients. But this process takes time to really make its full impact felt — and elections are held in the short run. This is another growing problem that can be left for someone else to try to cope with in future years.
Increasing amounts of paperwork for doctors in welfare states with government-run medical care, and reduced payments to those doctors, in order to stave off the day of bankruptcy, mean that the medical profession is likely to attract fewer of the brightest young people who have other occupations available to them — paying more money and having fewer hassles. But this too is a long-run problem — and elections are still held in the short run.
Eventually, all these long-run problems can catch up with the wonderful-sounding lies that are the lifeblood of welfare state politics. But there can be a lot of elections between now and eventually — and those who are good at political lies can win a lot of those elections.
As the day of reckoning approaches, there are a number of ways of seeming to overcome the crisis. If the government is running out of money, it can print more money. That does not make the country any richer, but it quietly transfers part of the value of existing money from people’s savings and income to the government, whose newly printed money is worth just as much as the money that people worked for and saved.
Printing more money means inflation — and inflation is a quiet lie, by which a government can keep its promises on paper, but with money worth much less than when the promises were made.
Is it so surprising voters with unrealistic hopes elect politicians who lie about being able to fulfill those hopes?
Publicado: 05-25-2012 09:47 AM
May 28, 2012 | Reaganite Republican
Publicado: 05-28-2012 01:48 PM
THE OBAMAS DON'T FEEL YOUR PAIN
O NO: 8.2% Just 80,000 jobs added in June... One-third at temp agencies... 85,000 WENT ON DISABILITY IN JUNE! Broader Jobless Rate At 14.9%... Unemployment rate for blacks jumps to 14.4%... Rate stuck at 11% for Hispanics... 780,000 Fewer Women Employed Under Obama...Romney: 'It Doesn't Have To Be This Way'...'Kick in the gut has got to end'... Anxiety mounts as economy limps into 2nd half... DOW PLUNGES... Team Obama predicted 5.6% today with stimulus... IMF to cut global growth forecast...
No White House Recession: Obama’s 454 Staffers Cost Taxpayers $37,121,463(For the record, Czars are excluded from this list.) But, within those numbers are some very interesting facts worth mentioning:
Obama’s 454 employees beats George W. Bush’s 447.
Obama’s crew also costs taxpayers $4 million dollars per year MORE than Bush’s, 13% more.
Also among the current White House staffers, 21 of them are earning the maximum allowed of $172,200 (very close to what Senators and Congressmen earn)
Almost one in three makes $100k.
Mientras aumenta la miseria en el pueblo, Michelle Antoinette ha gastado más de $10 millones en extravagantes vacaciones a través del mundo, ya Estados Unidos le resulta muy poca cosa para su hipertrofiado Ego.
JUNE JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS, UNEMPLOYMENT 8.2%
U.S. payrolls expanded by just 80,000 net jobs in June keeping the unemployment rate flat at 8.2 percent, newdata from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
The private sector only expanded by some 84,000 positions.
Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a gain of 100,000 positions during the month, with private payrolls advancing 106,000.
The disappointing report, which follows several months of weak economic gains, has sent U.S. markets sharply lower.
Millan Mulraine, an economist with TD Securities, attributed the gains to the manufacturing industry, which improved by 11,000 jobs this June. The service sector added 71,000 positions, down from 81,000 a month earlier.
However, Mulraine said the new data continues to emphasize the stagnating labor market recovery.
"The slow pace of jobs growth underscores the weakening economic growth momentum and reinforces the perception that the economy has remain mired in another soft patch," Millan says. "With the labor market recovery appearing to be stalled, the case for further policy accommodation will likely be strengthened, particularly given the benign inflationary background."
The report comes in sharp contrast to private payrolls data out of ADP just a day earlier that showed the economy expanded by 179,000 in June. That figure caused many analysts on Wall Street to raise their expectations going into this morning's announcement.
Adding further pressure to President Obama heading into the election, Hispanic and Latino unemployment remained essentially unchanged at 11.0 percent.
The unemployment rate for white men and women was unchanged at 7.4 percent, while 184,000 more black American's went without a job in June, for an unemployment rate of 14.4 percent.
May and April data were also revised during the month. In April, the BLS now estimates the economy added 68,000 jobs from an earlier report of 77,000. At the same time, employment grew by 77,000 in May, up from last month's report of 69,000.
MICHELLE ANTOINETTE OBAMA DOESN'T FEEL YOUR PAIN:
"For the first time in my life, I am really proud of this country."
Michelle Antoinette ha dilapidado $10 millones del dinero del pueblo en faustuosas vacaciones
acompañada con toda una corte de sicofantes mientras el desempleo y el índice de miseria rompen
el récord de Carter, siendo los más afectados los negros con un 14.4% de desempleo
(y el 54.1% entre los jóvenes negros y el 35% entre jóvenes hispanos en partes de U.S.)
Publicado: 07-06-2012 02:51 PM
La Peor Recuperación Económica después de una Recesión
Obama ha provocado con sus ataques a los sectores productivos del país la recesión más prologada y la recuperación más débil desde la Gran Depresión provocada por las mismas medidas anti económicas y contra el capital de su homólogo ideológico, Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
El pasado viernes se dio un reporte del desempleo desastroso que superó las predicciones más pesimistas de los expertos, con 80,000 empleos creados otros ¡80,000han ingresado a las filas de los deshabilitados!!! Cuando se sale de una recesión la norma es la creación de no menos 500,000 nuevos empleos mensualmente, de ellos 200,000 son necesarios para dar empleos a los que ingresan por su edad a la edad laboral.
Aunque el desempleo permaneció al 8.2%, lo cierto es que si siguieran los parámetros usados bajo el presidente Bush, los números reales pasarían del 14% ya que ocultan que dejan de contar como desempleados aquellos que desisten de seguir buscando los empleos que no existen. Además hay una válvula de escape a la que recurren los que han agotado su seguro de desempleado y es el recurrir al “disability” que les permite vivir recibiendo sin trabajar ayuda del gobierno (entiéndase, a costa de quienes trabajamos y pagamos religiosamente nuestros impuestos). YA PASAN DE 8.5 MILLONES LOS DESHABILITADOS, EL DOBLE DE CUANDO TOMÓ EL PODER OBAMA
El desempleo, gracias a Obama, y a pesar que había prometido que con los $800 billones del estímulo debió haber estado al 5.6% a estas alturas, sin embargo, se ha mantenido por 41 meses por encima del 8%. Otra tetra usada por Obama para engañar al pueblo manipulando las estadísticas, es que la participación en la fuerza laboral es del 63.8%, que es una de las más bajas en récord y que deforma el monto real del desempleo. Hay que tener en cuenta, que aún con las estadísticas manipuladas de Obama, el desempleo entre los negros es del 14.5% y el 11.1% entre los hispanos, mientras que en partes de U.S. ha pasado del 50% entre los jóvenes negros y del 35% entre jóvenes hispanos, el perfecto caldo de cultivo para una explosión de desórdenes raciales.
Es importante hacer notar que el desempleo bajó en todos y cada uno de los estados donde el gobernador es republicano.
1,300 PASTORES AFROAMERICANOS PIDEN A QUE LOS NEGROS HAGAN UN BOICOT A OBAMA
“Lo que fue un orgullo al ganar Obama se ha tornado en una vergüenza para la comunidad cristiana negra por su apoyo al matrimonio homosxual.”
Examiner ^ | July 6, 2012 | Joe Newby
La coalición de Pastores Afro-Americanos pidió una reunión con el presidente y fueron ignorados por Obama y por el fiscal de la nación, Eric Holder.
“La Iglesia afroamericana siempre ha sido la conciencia de América”, afirmó el Rev. William Owens, “y ahora estamos haciendo un llamado a los pastores y cristianos negros a no apoyar a Obama”
“Al apoyar el matrimonio Gay, Obama está arrastrando el país hacia la inmoralidad... Hay principios más importantes que la próxima elección” dijo Owens.
Publicado: 07-09-2012 01:38 PM