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Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

U.S. Economic Growth Now at 21-Month  Low

* Recession Due by  November of 2012 *

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. * March  11/2012

“Are you cut out to live a lie? If you  don't mind skulking around, leading a double life and constantly having to look  over your shoulder to make sure you don't get found out, you may have just what  it takes.” ~ How to Live a Lie  (eHow.com)

As I pointed out in War on Wealth, Part II | Keeping Our Foot on the  Gas, Barack Obama, the unopposed Democratic presidential nominee, has  been out on the campaign trail spreading the following wildly inaccurate  cliff-hangers. He says, “Manufacturing is coming back. Companies are  starting to bring jobs back. The economy is getting stronger. The recovery is  speeding up. We’re moving in the right direction. And now we have to do  everything in our power to keep our foot on the gas.”

But according to  the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the same crew who  predicted the last recession, U.S. economic growth is at 21-month low, and we  are heading straight into another recession, this year, in  2012.

ECRI is a private forecasting firm based in  Manhattan which was founded by Geoffrey H. Moore, the economist who helped  originate the practice of using leading indicators to predict business cycles. Over the last 15 years, ECRI  has gotten all of its ecession calls right, while issuing no  false alarms.

In the institute’s view, the United States,  which under the leadership of Barack Obama has failed to recover from the last downturn, is currently plummeting into a new one. On September 30,  2011, Lakshman Achuthan, the institute’s chief operations officer, said,” If  the United States isn’t already in a recession now it’s about to enter  one.”Mr. Achuthan maintains this pposition to this day. Here he is in a  February 24, 2012 interview on CNBC:

CNBC Video: U.S. Growth at 21-Month  Low.


In fact, if you carefully study the table  below, courtesy of the National Bureau of Economic Reserach, what should stand  out is the fact that, ever since 1945, the United States has averaged an  economic recession once every 59-month’s. Therefore, it is logical to  infer that since the last recession began in December of 2007, the next  recession should be arriving by November of 2012.

After the way Obama has divided and  driven the federal government and our nation into the ground over the last 37  month’s, can you imagine how he would act under the duress of a self-imposed  recession? More bailouts, never-ending stimulus, trillions more in crushing  debt, bigger deficits, numberless regulations, higher taxes, continued covering  of his tracks with a vast array of alibis and excuses, and more lies. Oops! Did  I say lies?

It’s been real  though, I mean the loss of almost a million manufacturing jobs since 2008; the  decline in economic growth from a peak annual rate of 3.0% in 2010, to just 1.7%  in 2011; the national debt as a percentage of GDP skyrocketing from 69.9% in  2008 to 104.8% in 2012, and projected to reach 107.8% by 2014; and lest we  forget, gasoline prices rising from an average price of $1.61 in the week ending  December 29, 2008, to $3.79  as of the week ending March 5, 2012. However, anyone who’s still considering Mr.  Obama’s re-election should take the time to study not only ECRI’s economic  indices, but also the eHow.com article, “How to Live a Lie” – because if you still believe in Obama there’s no sense in beating around the  Bush.

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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

Obama Approval Continuing to Decline

By Katie Pavlich 3/12/2012



Margaret Thatcher: "El socialismo dura hasta que se les acaba el  dinero de otros"

Winston Churchill:  "El socialismo es la filosofía del fracaso, el credo de los ignorantes, el  evangelio de la envidia y su virtud es el reparto igualitario de la  miseria."

Last week, we showed you 50 percent of Americans see President Obama's first term as a failure, but apparently the negative numbers didn't stop there.

Obama’s approval rating on the deficit hit an all-time low, with a slender 32 percent giving him positive marks. Among independents, 70 percent disapprove here, also a new high. Even on foreign policy — a onetime strong point — Obama’s ratings look worse. For the first time in nearly a year, as many Americans disapprove as approve of his handling of the war in Afghanistan. On Iran, a slim majority now disapproves of how he is dealing with the possibility of the country obtaining nuclear weapons.

High gas prices are finally taking their toll, despite old media doing everything they can to downplay the situation:

On energy issues generally, almost half the country gives Obama negative marks. Fifty percent of Americans see the Obama administration as having the power to do something about the cost of a gallon of gasoline.

Considering the President personally lobbied to kill the Keystone Pipeline project and as we watch solar company after solar company propped up by taxpayer loans go bankrupt, I doubt his approval numbers on energy will be going up anytime soon.



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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

Barack Obama’s Energy Policy: Unicorn Farts as the Fuel of Tomorrow

by Erick Erickson

March 19th 2012

On Friday, the President of the United States accused his Republican opponents of being members of the Flat Earth Society because of their demands that the nation increase drilling.

In no small bit of irony, the President who bitterly lamented the rise of ATM’s and internet travel options accused the GOP of wanting to bitterly cling to the past.

But what of Barack Obama’s energy policy? He likes to tout wind and solar technologies and batteries, but it seems while he accuses the GOP of being flat earthers, the reality is that the President is himself anti-science when it comes to the reality of domestic energy needs.

His solution to fueling our cars amounts to using unicorn farts as gas — which has just as much a chance of happening as the mythic battery powered cross country run.

The facts are pretty simple. As a matter of both science and reality, battery technology is neither good enough nor cheap enough to supply American needs relating to transportation. Even were there batteries available for vehicles, the cost of conversion for the tens of millions of cars on the road right now would be cost prohibitive and increasing fuel standards, resulting in smaller and smaller cars, penalize families. Try piling a family of four in a Prius for a trip to grand mom’s house for Spring Break. The luggage and leg room will make for an exciting time.

Even beyond the family car, a battery will not put an 18 wheeler on the road, a 747 in the air, or a locomotive on its rails. Americans depend on crude oil right now and in the future. To cling to the hope of a battery that can meet American automotive needs is anti-science and as realistic as fueling our future with unicorn farts. See Charles Lane at the Washington Post for more on the President’s crusade against science.

This President’s policies have done everything possible to drive up the price of crude oil in hopes that some mythical unicorn fart, solar panel, or battery will come online quickly enough to meet American needs. It is not happening. Going back to May of 2009, the President insisted on discouraging the “overproduction of oil” as potentially damaging to our national security. If only we had a President who understood supply and demand.

Under Barack Obama’s administration, domestic exploration on federal lands and seas is down 40% 14% (new non-partisan numbers are out and have revised the number down from 40% to 14% decrease in production, though the decrease in federal permitting is higher). The gains we have seen have come largely from one new find, Thunder Horse, approved by Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The exploration on land has come on private land Barack Obama could not stop.

For stability, the oil market depends on an excess supply of 1 million to 2 million barrels a day. The Keystone XL Pipeline would have provided an additional 700,000 barrels a day by itself. Barack Obama stopped it.

The reality is the President’s polling is going down because the logical outcomes of his policies are coming to pass. Now the President is left to demagogue the GOP instead of actually doing anything because he really does not want lower gas prices. He wants, instead, to continue using government stimulus funds to explore unicorn farts, solar, etc. as an energy source. After spending over $15 billion, there are only 3,545 jobs to show for it and a lot of bankruptcies and wasted money.

Meanwhile, the oil and natural gas sector of the economy is creating 20% of the good jobs in America. Imagine how much lower unemployment could be if Barack Obama were not so hostile to real energy.

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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

Real Talk:  "No Doubt" U.S. Credit Rating Will Be Downgraded Again, Says Sen.  Coburn

Townhall.com ^ | May 24, 2012 | Erika  Johnson


I hate that I feel compelled to say it, but the gentleman most  definitely has a point. Some words of wisdom from Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.): Coburn:  U.S. "should see another downgrade"

"S&P's downgrade on us was right, matter of fact  we're going to get another downgrade. I can tell you right now, you can have a  great legal case for suing the rating agencies for not downgrading us again  because we have not demonstrated the political will to solve the problems," said  Coburn on CBS's midweek show "Face to Face," posted online Wednesday. ...

"We should see another downgrade, because we have not done the  structural things that will fix our country," he added. ...

When asked if he agreed with Boehner's decision to push  forward the tumultuous debt-ceiling debate, Coburn said, "I think that's exactly  what our founders had in mind." ...

"Those are all things people don't want to hear, but it's  going to happen, because if we don't do it, the people who are loaning us the  money are going to make us do it," he said.

Coburn is essentially saying that last summer's downgrade,  which took our credit rating from AAA down to AA+ for the first time ever, was  pretty much our just desert. We've had the ability to foresee the consequences  of our metastisizing federal government's spending binge for ages, and we have  failed to summon the political will it's going to take to effect real change in  Washington. The United States creditworthiness is still a better bet relative to  lots of other countries, but we're going the way of Greece -- and  fast.

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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

MarketWatch  rebuttal infographic: How to make Obama’s spending look  small

Hotair ^ | 05/25/2012 | Political Math


It's been going around Facebook and the Twitters.

It's been rated “mostly true” by Politifact.

It is the MarketWatch piece on how Obama hasn't really increased spending all that  much.

And I'm da..mn tired of picking it apart 140  characters at a time, so I put together this sarcastic infographic showing  exactly how sloppy this piece really is.

There are two things in this infographic that should be called  out more explicitly.

First, much of the debate here centers around who exactly  should catch the blame for FY 2009 spending. This is actually a very tricky  question and I think compelling cases can be made for both sides of this  debate.

My personal pposition is that it's really complicated.  But one thing is for certain: in hindsight the CBO January 2009 estimate is so  obviously wrong that using it should be called out and  mocked.

The January 2009 CBO estimate might have been a "best estimate  of what Obama inherited", but only in January 2009 when spending data was *very*  hard to predict. January 2009 marked the worst part of the recession and the  uncertainty was very high. Only a few months later, Obama’s budget estimated  2009 spending would be $400 billion higher than the CBO estimate.

But now we can look at the data, not the estimates. And we  should. The spending data ended up $20 billion lower than the CBO estimate… and  that included the stimulus spending (which Nutting says was $140 billion, but  I’m still trying to track that number down). If that is the case, the high-end estimate for Bush’s fiscal year is  $3.38 trillion. If we compare that to Obama’s 2013 budget proposal ($3.80  trillion), that’s an increase of 12.5% (3.1% annualized). Which isn’t that  high, but it’s also using a baseline that is still filled with a lot of what  were supposed to be 1 time expenses (TARP, Cash for Clunkers, the auto bailout,  the housing credit, etc).

Second, Nutting uses the CBO baseline in place of  Obama’s spending. This is easily verified and I can’t think of a serious  economic pundit who would say this is OK. I can think of two reasons for doing  this: Either a) Nutting is a monstrously biased pposition who (rightly) figured  no one in the liberal world would fact check him so he could use whatever the  hell number he wanted to use or b) Nutting had no idea that the CBO baseline  isn’t a budget proposal. I’m actually leaning toward the second explanation.  Nutting uses so many disparate sources it seems clear he doesn’t know his way  around federal finance.

Congrats, Mr. Nutting. I don’t think you’re a huge  jerk, only that you’re hilariously unqualified for your job.


Bush requested $3.107 trillion, but the final budget of $3.52 trillion was  passed by the Democratic Congress and signed by President Obama on March 12,  2009.

For actual spending, I used the monthly Treasury Reports, which have  spending and revenue for every month since 1981 in an Excel file. Easy to work  with.

For the CBO fiscal year 2009 estimates.

The CBO baseline (which was referenced by Nutting for the  $3.58 trillion number) is found here.

President Obama’s actual 2013  budget

And just for kicks, here is the CBO analysis of the President’s Budget which  pegs Obama’s 2013 spending at $3.717 trillion.


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May 25, 2012 @ 12:03 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage

The fact that so many successful politicians are such  shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us.  When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy them, and only in  the short run. The current outbreaks of riots in Europe show what happens when  the truth catches up with both the politicians and the people in the long  run.

Among the biggest lies of the welfare states on both sides of  the Atlantic is the notion that the government can supply the people with things  they want but cannot afford. Since the government gets its resources from the  people, if the people as a whole cannot afford something, neither can the  government.

There is, of course, the perennial fallacy that the government  can simply raise taxes on “the rich” and use that additional revenue to pay for  things that most people cannot afford. What is amazing is the implicit  assumption that “the rich” are all such complete fools that they will do nothing  to prevent their money from being taxed away. History shows  otherwise.

After the Constitution of the United States was amended to  permit a federal income tax, in 1916, the number of people reporting taxable  incomes of $300,000 a year or more fell from well over a thousand to fewer than  three hundred by 1921.

Were the rich all getting poorer? Not at all. They were  investing huge sums of money in tax-exempt securities. The amount of money  invested in tax-exempt securities was larger than the federal budget, and nearly  half as large as the national debt.

This was not unique to the United States or to that era. After  the British government raised their income tax on the top income earners in  2010, they discovered that they collected less tax revenue than before. Other  countries have had similar experiences. Apparently the rich are not all fools,  after all.

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In today’s globalized world economy, the rich can simply   invest their money in countries where tax rates are lower.

So, if you cannot rely on “the rich” to pick up the  slack,  what can you rely on? Lies.

Nothing is easier for a politician than promising  government  benefits that cannot be delivered.

Pensions such as Social Security are perfect for this  role.  The promises that are made are for money to be paid many years from  now — and  somebody else will be in power then, left with the job of  figuring out what to  say and do when the money runs out and the riots  start.

There are all sorts of ways of postponing the day of   reckoning. The government can refuse to pay what it costs to get things  done.  Cutting what doctors are paid for treating Medicare patients is one  obvious  example.

That of course leads some doctors to refuse to take on  new  Medicare patients. But this process takes time to really make its full  impact  felt — and elections are held in the short run. This is another  growing problem  that can be left for someone else to try to cope with in  future  years.

Increasing amounts of paperwork for doctors in welfare  states  with government-run medical care, and reduced payments to those  doctors, in  order to stave off the day of bankruptcy, mean that the  medical profession is  likely to attract fewer of the brightest young  people who have other occupations  available to them — paying more money  and having fewer hassles. But this too is  a long-run problem — and  elections are still held in the short run.

Eventually, all these long-run problems can catch up with  the  wonderful-sounding lies that are the lifeblood of welfare state  politics. But  there can be a lot of elections between now and eventually — and those who are  good at political lies can win a lot of those  elections.

As the day of reckoning approaches, there are a number of  ways  of seeming to overcome the crisis. If the government is running out  of money, it  can print more money. That does not make the country any  richer, but it quietly  transfers part of the value of existing money from  people’s savings and income  to the government, whose newly printed money  is worth just as much as the money  that people worked for and  saved.

Printing more money means inflation — and inflation  is  a quiet lie, by which a government can keep its promises on paper, but  with  money worth much less than when the promises were  made.

Is it so surprising voters with unrealistic hopes elect   politicians who lie about being able to fulfill those hopes?


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Gingrich's Defense of Bain Capital

Gingrich's Defense of Bain Capital Far Superior to Anything You Ever Hear Coming from Romney

May 28, 2012 | Reaganite Republican


"How can you be the president with the worst
unemployment record since the Great Depression
-and pick a fight over job creation?
There's a point where this becomes ludicrous..."


"Bain as an issue doesn't work, because people look at it on balance... and they say 'wait a second -yeah- you can pick a couple companies that lost. You can pick a lot of companies that succeeded.' And as even as the governor of Massachusetts said last week, it is a good company." "This is going to fall flat on its face ... Obama picking a fight on the economy is probably the worst possible strategy for his campaign."
"(Cory Booker) described what I think is a big reality for him as the Mayor of Newark: that that free enterprise system has been creating jobs, paying taxes, improving his city."
"In effect, what Obama is saying is that government investment is smarter than private equity -and if you look at their track record of losing billions on various solar companies -$2.1B on one company alone- you'd have to say Obama's a pretty bad venture capitalist.
And remember, he's doing it with your money... for better or worse, Romney was taking a risk as a private person, with private money, in the private sector... Obama's been throwing our money as taxpayers away, and our children's and grandchildren's in the national debt" "I think private equity on balance creates far more jobs that it kills... I think private equity creates a far better future... look at the rise of Google, of Apple." "Private equity in general has been a force that has overwhelmingly been more effective at creating jobs than any socialist government in history. So if I had to choose between private equity and socialism, I'd choose private equity every time.
Countries that use private equity get richer, and countries that follow socialism get poorer.... Obama's frankly a pretty good case study in that: his examples of public equity -investing in Solyndra, investing in other failing companies -I mean he's thrown-away billions of dollars of taxpayers' money- because it turns-out that bureaucrats don't make very good venture capitalists."
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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV



O NO: 8.2% Just 80,000 jobs added in June... One-third at temp agencies... 85,000 WENT ON DISABILITY  IN  JUNE! Broader Jobless Rate At 14.9%... Unemployment rate for blacks jumps to   14.4%... Rate stuck at 11% for Hispanics... 780,000 Fewer Women Employed Under Obama...Romney: 'It Doesn't Have To Be This Way'...'Kick  in the gut has got to end'... Anxiety mounts as economy limps into 2nd   half... DOW   PLUNGES... Team Obama predicted 5.6%  today  with stimulus... IMF to cut global growth   forecast...



No White House Recession: Obama’s 454 Staffers Cost Taxpayers $37,121,463(For the record, Czars are excluded from this list.)  But, within those numbers are some very interesting facts worth mentioning:

Obama’s 454 employees beats George W. Bush’s 447.

Obama’s crew also costs taxpayers $4 million dollars per year MORE than Bush’s, 13% more.

Also among the current White House staffers, 21 of them are earning the maximum allowed of $172,200 (very close to what Senators and Congressmen earn)

Almost one in three makes $100k.


Mientras aumenta la  miseria  en el pueblo, Michelle Antoinette ha gastado más de $10 millones  en  extravagantes vacaciones a través del mundo, ya Estados Unidos le  resulta muy  poca cosa para su hipertrofiado  Ego.



U.S. payrolls expanded by just 80,000 net jobs in June  keeping  the  unemployment rate flat at 8.2 percent, newdata from  the  Bureau  of Labor Statistics shows.

The private sector only expanded by some 84,000   positions.

Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a gain of  100,000  positions during the month, with private payrolls   advancing  106,000.

The disappointing report, which follows several months of  weak  economic  gains, has sent U.S. markets sharply lower.

Millan Mulraine, an economist with TD Securities,  attributed  the gains to the  manufacturing industry, which improved  by 11,000 jobs  this June. The  service sector added 71,000  positions, down from  81,000 a month  earlier.

However, Mulraine said the new data  continues to  emphasize  the stagnating labor market recovery.

"The slow pace of jobs growth underscores the  weakening  economic growth  momentum and reinforces the perception  that the economy  has remain mired in  another soft patch," Millan  says. "With the  labor market recovery  appearing to be stalled,  the case for further policy  accommodation will likely  be  strengthened, particularly given the benign  inflationary   background."

The report comes in sharp contrast to private payrolls  data  out of ADP  just a day earlier that showed the  economy  expanded by 179,000 in June.  That figure caused many  analysts on Wall  Street to raise their expectations  going into this  morning's  announcement.

Adding further pressure to President Obama heading into  the  election, Hispanic  and Latino unemployment   remained essentially unchanged at 11.0 percent.

The unemployment rate for white men and women was unchanged  at  7.4 percent, while  184,000 more black  American's  went without a job in June, for an  unemployment rate  of 14.4  percent.

May and April data were also revised during the month.  In  April, the BLS now  estimates the economy added 68,000 jobs from  an earlier  report of 77,000. At the  same time, employment grew by  77,000 in May, up  from last month's report of   69,000.



"For the first time in my  life,  I  am really proud of this country."


"Let the little people   eat  their peas, right Barry? Someone want to pass some more of that   $100/lb Wagyu  Beef?"




Michelle Antoinette ha dilapidado  $10  millones del dinero del pueblo en faustuosas  vacaciones

acompañada con toda una corte de   sicofantes mientras el desempleo y el índice de miseria rompen

el récord de Carter, siendo los más   afectados los negros con un 14.4% de desempleo

(y el 54.1% entre los jóvenes negros y  el  35% entre jóvenes hispanos en partes de U.S.)


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Re: Economic Growth Now at 21-Month Low -RECESSION BY NOV

La Peor Recuperación Económica después de  una   Recesión

Obama ha provocado con sus ataques a los sectores   productivos  del país la recesión más prologada y la recuperación más  débil  desde la Gran  Depresión provocada por las mismas medidas anti  económicas y  contra el capital  de su homólogo ideológico, Franklin  Delano  Roosevelt.

El pasado viernes se dio un reporte del desempleo    desastroso que superó las predicciones más pesimistas de los expertos,  con   80,000 empleos creados otros ¡80,000han ingresado a las filas de  los   deshabilitados!!!  Cuando se sale de una recesión la norma  es la  creación  de no menos 500,000 nuevos empleos mensualmente, de  ellos 200,000  son necesarios  para dar empleos a los que ingresan por  su edad a la edad  laboral.

Aunque el desempleo permaneció al 8.2%, lo cierto es que   si  siguieran los parámetros usados bajo el presidente Bush, los  números  reales  pasarían del 14% ya que ocultan que dejan de contar  como  desempleados aquellos  que desisten de seguir buscando los  empleos que no  existen.  Además hay una  válvula de escape a la  que recurren los que  han agotado su seguro de desempleado  y es el  recurrir al “disability” que  les permite vivir recibiendo sin  trabajar  ayuda del gobierno (entiéndase,  a costa de quienes  trabajamos y pagamos  religiosamente nuestros  impuestos). YA PASAN DE 8.5 MILLONES LOS DESHABILITADOS, EL DOBLE DE CUANDO TOMÓ EL PODER OBAMA

El desempleo, gracias a Obama, y a pesar que había   prometido  que con los $800 billones del estímulo debió haber estado  al  5.6% a estas  alturas, sin embargo, se ha mantenido por 41 meses  por encima  del 8%.  Otra  tetra usada por Obama para engañar al  pueblo  manipulando las estadísticas, es  que la participación en la  fuerza laboral  es del 63.8%, que es una de las más  bajas en récord y  que deforma el monto  real del desempleo. Hay que tener en cuenta, que aún  con las estadísticas  manipuladas de Obama, el desempleo entre los negros  es del 14.5% y el 11.1%  entre los hispanos, mientras que en partes de U.S.  ha pasado del 50% entre los  jóvenes negros y del 35% entre jóvenes  hispanos, el perfecto caldo de cultivo  para una explosión de desórdenes  raciales.

Es importante hacer notar que el desempleo bajó  en  todos y cada uno de los estados donde el gobernador es   republicano.





“Lo que fue un orgullo al ganar Obama se ha tornado en una vergüenza para la comunidad cristiana negra por su apoyo al matrimonio homosxual.”


Examiner ^ | July 6, 2012 | Joe Newby

La coalición  de Pastores Afro-Americanos pidió una reunión con el presidente y fueron ignorados por Obama y por el fiscal de la nación, Eric Holder.

“La Iglesia afroamericana siempre ha sido la conciencia de América”, afirmó el Rev. William Owens, “y ahora estamos haciendo un llamado a los pastores y cristianos negros a no apoyar a Obama

“Al apoyar el matrimonio Gay, Obama está arrastrando el país hacia la inmoralidad... Hay principios más importantes que la próxima elección” dijo Owens.